Billions of dollars could lie waiting for exporters from the top of the South Island if they considered new markets or food products, a new report suggests.
The report said there was another $24 billion to be made in Te Tauihu by diversifying and identifying different markets.
“Our analysis has profiled products including peanut butter, ice cream, and mussel oil, which all have potential for growth that exporters in the top of the south can consider,'' Infometrics chief forecast Gareth Kiernan said.
Nelson had its tourism sector but it also had a wide range of businesses, ‘’small businesses and they’re taking big risks, so the more information they can have to spread the risk and mitigate that, the better.’’
Kiernan said the export profile of the Tasman and Marlborough regions was quite different from the rest of New Zealand, which tended to be dominated by dairy, meat and food processing.
Te Tauihu’s top exports were wine, seafood and aquaculture, and forestry and wood products, regionally accounting for about 3 per cent of New Zealand's exports.
Merchandise exports were growing strongly at the top of the South, averaging 9 per cent a year since 2015, more than twice the rate of the national economy.
But diversification was key. Recent tariffs and import bans by China on Australian products such as wine, seafood, and timber had demonstrated the importance of securing and maintaining a range of international markets.
Wine was the top of the South's biggest export and biggest area of export potential. Its export earnings were$1.96b last year, a three-fold growth rate since 2008.
But its untapped global market potential was $5.28b.
”The challenge for the industry is to optimise its export profile between bulk and bottled wine, and between established and relatively untapped markets,” the report said.
In processed wood, Te Tauihu’s exports consisted of mainly medium density fibreboard (MDF) and some timber products, which had grown steadily over the past decade, in contrast with a fairly constant rate nationally.
Log exports had also been dynamic, quadrupling since 2009 to $3b, thanks to the Chinese market.
One of the biggest surprises was the salmon industry, Kiernan said. Salmon exports were primarily focussed on fresh and chilled salmon.
“Our analysis suggested there wasn't massive amounts of scope for growth from where we are the moment but [there was] a lot of potential growth in frozen salmon, which we do export a bit but nowhere near as much as the fresh fish.
“It was around $170m [potentially] in the US for frozen salmon, which was more than the total salmon exports over the last year. By thinking a little bit outside the square.”
Seafood and aquaculture exports such as fish fillets and mussels generally had been earning between $280m and $500m in the region since 2008, but the report estimated the sector could grow an extra $3.2b.
Exports of frozen hoki market, for example, earned $38m last year, and while Australia was the region’s key hoki market, there was great potential for exports to Japan, the US, France, and Poland
Japan and France offered scope to double the region’s hoki exports and Poland could offer a 30 per cent boost. The US was also relatively untapped, with potential to raise exports from under $3m currently to $14m.
Exports of other food products such as vegetables, had also enjoyed impressive growth.
"Like horticulture and wine exports, these products appear to have benefited from Covid-19, as overseas consumers with excess savings substituted towards consuming healthy and high-quality produce at home," Kiernan said.
"Untapped potential" was defined by Infometrics as the difference between the potential market and the value of the country's exports to that market.
For example, Saudi Arabia bought $38m in apples a year. New Zealand exported $1m of apples to Saudi Arabia meaning that that country's “untapped potential” to New Zealand was $37m.
Top of the South’s export potential
• Wine: $5.3b in additional export potential
• Seafood and aquaculture: $3.2b
• Wood products: $4.0b
• Logs: $0.96b
• Fruit (including apples and kiwifruit): $1.0b
• Meat: $3.0b
• Dairy products: $1.0b
• Other food products: $4.8b